Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion.
Background Paper No. 04/2000 by Antony Green
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- Under normal circumstances, a redistribution of electoral
boundaries would not be due until after the 2003 election. However, under
Section 28A of the Constitution Act, a redistribution can be triggered if
electoral enrolments become malapportioned. (See Pages 3-4)
- An electorate is defined as malapportioned if it varies from
the average enrolment by more than 5% for more than two months. If more than a
quarter of electorates (24 or more in the current parliament) are
malapportioned, a redistribution will be triggered. (See Pages 3-4)
- Under Section 28A, a redistribution cannot be triggered in the
last year of the life of a parliament. For this reason, electoral enrolments
must be malapportioned by December 2001 if a redistribution is to take place.
(See Pages 3-4)
- Based on projected electoral enrolments, it appears that this
criteria will be met, and a redistribution will take place before the next
election. (See Tables 2 and 3, pages 15-19)
- Predicting electoral enrolment is an inexact science. As Table
1 shows, even the detailed projections prepared by the 1998 Electoral
Boundaries Commission were inaccurate compared to the actual enrolments at the
time of the 1999 election. Of the 93 electorates, 25 exceeded the 3% variation
at the time of the election. (See Table 1, pages 13-14)
- The two methods used by the paper to predict future enrolments
take linear projections based on 12 and 24 month enrolment data. However, this
cannot take account of local development or time related factors causing
enrolment growth. Prospects for a redistribution may also be affected by
enrolment changes associated with next years federal election, and by enrolment
drives and roll cleanses conducted by the political parties. Enrolment trends
should be more stable over the next year, as in an attempt to avoid an
unneccessary redistribution, the Australian Electoral Commission will be
cleansing the roll on a rolling basis, rather than the usual annual cycle. (See
page 8)
- Projected enrolments indicate that an electorate will be
abolished west of the Great Dividing Range, with Goulburn also likely to be
moved into Southern Highlands. A new electorate is likely to be created in the
south-west of the Sydney metropolitan area between Liverpool and Camden, and
there will be substantial changes to boundaries in the north-west of the
metropolitan area along Windsor Road. (See pages 8-12)
