In 2001 the world population was 6.1 billion. It is projected to grow by 50
percent, to 9.3 billion people, by 2050. There are two main factors which
influence the size of the world’s population: fertility, which is the
rate at which the population reproduces, and mortality – the rate at
which people die. At December 2001, the estimated Australian resident
population was 19.6 million.
Immigration is an important determinant of the size of the Australian
population. Australia's permanent immigration program has two components:
Skilled and Family Stream migrants (together referred to as the Migration
Program); and the Humanitarian program, for refugees and others with
humanitarian needs. The Humanitarian Program has been allocated 12,000 new
places for the 2002-03 financial year. The current 2002-03 Migration Program is
the largest in over a decade, with a planned intake in the range of 100,000 to
110,000 places.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has projected the nation’s
population to 2101. Of the three scenarios, the mid-case scenario indicates: a
population of 25.3 million in 2051, which peaks at 25.5 million in 2063 and
then gradually declines. An almost constant population size is achieved from
the middle of the projection period, with close to zero growth rates and only
slight declines in population after 2063.
The linkages between population growth and its affect on the environment are
keenly debated in the literature. A cross section of reports exploring this
relationship is discussed. The most recent report is Future Dilemmas from the
CSIRO. It found four kinds of impacts of population growth on the Australian
environment. These were: primary – (or first order), these are directly
linked to: individuals who require food; households that require houses, cars,
televisions and refrigerators; and communities that require schools, hospitals
and public transport; secondary – (or second order), these are linked to
affluence, lifestyle and scale; tertiary – (or third order) these occur
when the domestic requirements for imported goods and services have to be
covered by revenue from the goods and services from the nation’s export
industries. The rising levels of imports linked to consumption growth on a per
capita household basis have to be paid for by exporting commodities such as
coal and wheat, and importing international tourists; and quaternary –
(or fourth order) these occur when the lagged effects of previous population
growth and economic development have contributed to issues such as
international debt and weakness of currencies.
Sydney is now classed as a ‘global city’, and attracting people
from around Australia and from overseas. Population predictions for Sydney
forecast it to grow from a population of currently 3.5 million to six million
by 2050 . Measures to attract migrants away from Sydney are discussed.
