Introduction
Over the last two decades I have prepared numerous publications for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library dealing with election results, redistributions, and comparisons of state and federal elections.
This paper draws together findings from a range of these publications to provide snapshots of the 93 Legislative Assembly electorates to be contested at the state election on 26 March.
At the end of the paper I also provide a brief overview of past Legislative Council results and a comparison with recent Senate elections. A summary of Newspoll opinion polls is also provided.
The new research carried out for this publication has been to convert the results of the 2004 and 2010 federal elections to match the current state electoral boundaries. The 2007 federal election was not used as it is unlikely to be a good guide to the 2011 state election, while the 1996 to 2001 federal results are derived from past publications.
Results from state elections between 1991 and 1999, as well as federal elections from 1996 to 2001 have been re-estimated based on boundary changes introduced by the 2004 redistribution. The older elections have not been re-calculated, just adjusted based on changes outlined in the publication "2004 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries", Background Paper 1/2005. A full list of the sources for this publications can be found in the bibliography.
The estimates for elections before 2003 must be treated with caution. The estimates cannot take account of sitting member factors, or the rapid growth or turnover of electors that has occurred in some electorates. The aim of the publication has been to provide an overview of the history and voting patterns of each electorate, and older estimated margins must be treated as a guide only.
Format of the Report
One page of information has been provided for each Legislative Assembly electorate.
At the top of each page is the name, party status and most appropriate margin for each electorate based on 2007 results and current knowledge of nominations. By-election margins have been used for Penrith, Port Macquarie and Penrith.
The name of the sitting member for each seat is also shown, with members who have stated they will not be contesting the 2011 election highlighted. A brief history of each electorate is also provided.
Underneath is a table summarising margins at state elections since 1991 and federal elections 1996-2004 and 2010. As noted above, these values have been derived from past publications as well as re-calculations of the 2004 and 2010 federal elections. Where an adjustment has been made owing to the 2004 redistribution, note is made beneath the table.
A second table lists first preference, 2-candidate preferred and 2-party preferred totals for each electorate at recent elections. Adjusted figures from the 2003 state election and 2010 federal election are included, as well as a summary of the 2007 state result. By-elections since 2007 are included where required.
Where warranted, some commentary is provided on the historical voting pattern in an electorate. Using 2006 Census data, a demographic profile is provided for electorates with distinctive features.
A current Electoral Pendulum is provided on page 4. A summary of Newspolls since 2007 on page 98, and summary tables of past Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council election results on page. 102. The Council summary includes a summary of recent Senate results using the quota for election to the Legislative Council.