Advice on legislation or legal policy issues contained in this paper is provided for use in parliamentary debate and for related parliamentary purposes. This paper is not professional legal opinion.
Background Paper No. 03/2005 by Antony Green
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In 1986, Murray Goot of Macquarie University was commissioned by the NSW
Parliamentary Library to produce a background paper on by-elections. What was
originally to be a brief paper became a thorough historical and statistical
study of New South Wales by-elections. Goot’s study is still the most
substantial analytical work on the subject in Australia political science
literature.
In the short time allowed for the preparation of the current paper, it has not
been possible to repeat the work carried out by Goot. No attempt has been made
to update Goot’s work on the age of members and candidates, nor to model
the predictive capacity of by-election swings.
This paper has confined itself to updating Goot’s tables on the causes of
by-elections, the periods for which seats have been left vacant, as well as the
swings recorded at by-elections. Where appropriate, data from Goot’s
tables have been included, and commentary has been provided on where
Goot’s findings continue to be relevant to more recent by-elections, and
where new trends appear to have developed.
Goot’s study included all by-elections from 1941 up to and including Bass
Hill and Rockdale in August 1986. This publication has concentrated on
by-elections since 1965, updating Goot's data with three further by-elections
conducted in the term of the Unsworth Government, as well as all by-elections
held during the Greiner, Fahey and Carr Governments. Details of by-elections
between 1941 and 1965 can be found in Goot’s study.
Data for all by-elections since 1965 have been re-calculated from a database of
election results currently being prepared as part of the Sesquicentenary
celebrations for the New South Wales Parliament. Apart from a few minor
corrections in the calculations, there are no significant differences from the
data in Goot’s publication. Only one change from Goot’s study is
worth noting. In Goot’s Table A1, an incorrect date has been corrected
and a change in number of candidates has been included for the 1975 Pittwater
by-election. Correcting this makes only the slightest change to Goot’s
other tables.